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  #21  
Old Yesterday, 06:55 PM
dio dio is online now
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Price goes up - people complaint price too high i can't get the card i want
Price goes down - I'm losing money on my cards...

Either way people will not be happy, Just buy what you enjoy with money that's not in need. People spend 100k on buying a brand new car after 5 years only worth 50k , as long as you enjoys it and the money you spend on it is not needed. then why care
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  #22  
Old Yesterday, 09:01 PM
David W David W is offline
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Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.

You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.
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  #23  
Old Today, 11:24 AM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David W View Post
You may be correct. But if you are investing in high end graded cards of top players, you do not know how many high end cards are still out there waiting to be graded.

So you do not know the supply side of the equation, nor necessarily even the demand side.

But people have and will make money speculating on baseball cards.
Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.

But continuing as a Devil's Advocate, I think the unknowns and speculation in the stock market are also very prevalent. Speculation has been cited as at least one of the reasons behind each of the major stock market crashes. And while market cap and other statistics on stocks are widely available to shareholders, there are many examples of companies deceiving the public and their shareholders by using loopholes and accounting tricks ("cooking the books") to hide debt, etc. (such as Enron). I think there's likely a certain amount of unknown risk in EVERY investment.
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  #24  
Old Today, 12:04 PM
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jchcollins jchcollins is offline
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I'm not experienced enough to comment on the true high-end of the market, or what real rarities or highly desired pre-war sells for, or anything like that. But, in the wheelhouse of what I do collect and am familiar with (1950-70's mid-grade stars - whether graded or not) I think on the whole the cards remain very affordable and also don't seem to lose a ton of value. I think a PSA 5 '63 Topps Willie Mays (to use an example from my collection) if you do the math and see what a comparable (albeit before grading) version of that same card sold for in say 1989 - I think you would find things haven't changed all that much.

Again, this obviously doesn't speak to the rather large changes in the high end of the vintage market that have happened since 1989 - but it works for me.
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'56 and '67 Topps sets. Mid to off-grade 1950's thru 70's HOFers. Old Cubs and Brooklyn Dodgers. Random eBay impulse purchases...

Last edited by jchcollins; Today at 12:06 PM.
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  #25  
Old Today, 12:39 PM
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JustinD JustinD is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AGuinness View Post
Very true, and in particular the population of ungraded cards likely increases the more modern the card is, creating more risk for modern and recent star cards.
I would actually doubt that hypothesis.

The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.

Anyone that is sitting on a childhood collection or has not been avid in collecting in the past 20 years is unlikely to have used a TPG and thus the cards are unaccounted for. As the boomers and older pass on, their children may look to move those inheritances and will be adding to the pop numbers for sale.

The first thing modern collectors do is sleeve cards from the pack and ship off anything to the TPGs.
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Player collecting - Lance Parrish, Jim Davenport, John Norlander.

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  #26  
Old Today, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by JustinD View Post
I would actually doubt that hypothesis.
The production numbers are lower and the collecting base are adult due to the immense cost of anything other than base sets. It is also a collecting group that has fully embraced TPGs.
.
Agreed. As costly for the hobby as the fallout of the "junk era" was, the manufacturers learned their lesson well. Instead of a wide hobby base now and collecting being wildly popular at all age ranges, you have a narrowed range that is increasingly about wealthy adults. I suppose the manufacturers chose this as a safer route rather than go to extra effort to ensure the hobby remained affordable for a wider range of collectors. As for TPG's, I'm personally surprised that the marked embraced them so completely so quickly, but the handwriting was clearly on the wall decades earlier over in the coin hobby.
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