NonSports Forum

Net54baseball.com
Welcome to Net54baseball.com. These forums are devoted to both Pre- and Post- war baseball cards and vintage memorabilia, as well as other sports. There is a separate section for Buying, Selling and Trading - the B/S/T area!! If you give an opinion of a person or company your full name needs to be in your post. Contact the moderator at leon@net54baseball.com should you have any questions or concerns. Enjoy!
Net54baseball.com
Net54baseball.com

Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Postwar Sportscard Forums > Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 05-19-2011, 09:35 AM
novakjr novakjr is offline
David Nova.kovich Jr.
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: 20 miles east of the Mistake
Posts: 2,269
Default

Many factors play into Bautista's emergence as a beast.

1)he clearly wasn't ready to be in the big's, yet he got to be during all those years in Pittsburgh. There are many great late bloomers that languish in the minors until 28 or 29 only to have some monstrous years at the big league level.

2)Confidence is everything. Many players that are brought up too soon get discouraged to the point where they don't see reality, and the mentality of thinking they suck, becomes a trend. While many times, a change of team or simple encouragement from someone such as a new manager or hitting coach can give them a new confidence.

3)That same change in hitting coach will often lead to a change in a player's swing. Which is clearly working for Bautista in this case.

4)Sometimes simple placement in the batting order will lead to seeing better pitches. Which, duh! Lead to more home runs.

5)Sometimes a player just gets the lucky with what pitches he's getting. I'll use Brady Anderson as an example here, yes, I know he juiced, But you don't go from 16-50 on steroids alone. Luck plays a huge part in it..

6)as someone stated earlier, Bautista is an all or nothing type hitter. Once all the other factors play in, if a player starts connecting, pitchers will start walking him or pitching around him. Which will often lead to the only hittable pitches he sees being mistakes. And he's been seeing alot of mistakes lately. That's the main difference between a guy like Bautista or Dave Kingman(dude was a beast, especially in '79) and guys like Richie Sexson and Russel Branyan.

Aside from not having almost no luck earlier in his career, Bautista would be the modern equivalent of Dave Kingman. Kingman peaked at around 30, partially due to a change in coaching that more suited him, plus some luck.. A difference in pitching and managerial approaches in this era are the reason a player of this type CAN bat .350+ rather than, if lucky, .288 in the older eras, as in Kingman's best season. Back in those day, the pitching approach was more, challenge him, if he hit's one then, oh well. And that was pretty much the same approach most pitchers took to Sexson as well. This "throw crap pitches and hope not to f*** up" approach is somewhat of a newer thing...
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-19-2011, 09:48 AM
Robextend's Avatar
Robextend Robextend is offline
Rob Miller
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Middlesex, NJ
Posts: 2,928
Default

Rico Petrocelli (Never hit more than 18HR before 1968):
1968 406AB 12HR
1969 535AB 40HR

Davey Johnson (Never hit more than 18HR before 1972):
1972 376AB 5HR
1973 559AB 40HR

Jose Bautista
2009 336AB 13HR
2010 569AB 54HR

Please explain the difference...I am sure I can dig up more examples as well. The point is that these things DO happen. And if you want to accuse Bautista, go ahead and accuse Davey Johnson and Rico Petrocelli as well.

Thanks - Rob
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-19-2011, 11:07 AM
steve B steve B is offline
Steve Birmingham
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: eastern Mass.
Posts: 4,951
Default

Edited to add that some guys are duplicated because it took me a long time to get this post together while taking care of the baby.

Leaving out early career cup if coffee type seasons.

Cecil Fielder - 4 years of half seasons poor to ordinary batting average and 14 Hr his best year. One year in Japan? Comes back to hit 51 hr .277 Sliding but reasonably productive through 96

Dave Kingman - good but not amazing for 4 years in SF goes to the Mets and goes from a sub 30 Hr hitter (Although barely under one year) to 36 and 37hr
production like a yo-yo the rest of his career.

Darrell Evans - 1971-82 with typically 20 or fewer HR. one outlier season with 41 in 73 and a good but not great year with 25 in 74. Then 30 in 83, 40 in 85, and 34 in 87.

Frank Howard - 1960 -66 Mostly teens or low 20's in HR 31 in 62 and 28 in 63
(62 expansion year if you buy that stuff) Then 67-70 36,44,48,44 HR

Jack Clark - 77-86 Good but not great and inconsistent. usually 20+HR but no more than 27 and only 3 years in the upper 20's. Then 35 in 87, a crazy year for HR anyway, but upper 20's for the next 4 years

Ted Kluszewski- 48-52 only one year over 20HR and that only 25. 53-56 40,49,47,35 HR.


yes, most good hitters are good right away. But taking a few years to get going while unusual isn't unheard of.

Steve B

Last edited by steve B; 05-19-2011 at 11:10 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-19-2011, 11:12 AM
Robextend's Avatar
Robextend Robextend is offline
Rob Miller
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Middlesex, NJ
Posts: 2,928
Default

Good examples Steve. Either way Bautista could fall into a category of 1-2 seasons of greatness and then fall back like a Davey Johnson, or can be like one of Steve's examples and be a consistent bigtime HR hitter after a few years of not being one.

The examples are out there....

A couple more:

Wally Post
1954 451AB 18HR
1955 601AB 40HR

Bob Cerv
1957 345AB 11HR
1958 515AB 38HR
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-19-2011, 11:27 AM
ls7plus ls7plus is offline
Larry
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Southfield, Michigan
Posts: 1,654
Default Missed the point

I think virtually all of you have missed the point. We're talking about a player whose performance for SIX YEARS was barely good enough to stay in the major leagues, who then catapulted out of nowhere into THE 99th PERCENTILE of current hitters, and should his production continue at current levels, certainly above the 95th percentile of all time, at age 29! I repeat once more for clarity: IT DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY IN NATURE--IT NEVER HAS, AND IT NEVER WILL! None of your examples fit that mold at all. Joe Hardy is far closer, and it is not a coincidence that he was purely a fictitious character. Frank Howard doesn't even come close to a fit--He hit 23 homers as a rooke, batting .268 in 1960, 15 in a half season's worth of at bats in 1961, while hitting for a .296 average, 31 homers in 493 at bats in '62, once again hitting .296, 28 HR's in only 417 at bats in '63--he had but one down season similar to Bautista's six, which was 1964, when he hit but .226, although he still managed 24 HR's.

Dave Kingman beyond any question doesn't fit the Bautista mold either, with a string of homerun seasons starting when he was just 23 years old of 29, 24, 18, 36, 37, 26, 28, 48, 18 (in only half a season), 22 (in two-thirds of a season), 37, 13 (in half a season's worth of at bats, 248), 35, 30 and 35. Nope, no Jose Bautista there!

Wally Post? Oops, sorry once again. Post hit 18 homeruns in 1954, a season which he started when he was only 24 years old, and batted just 451 times, hitting what was most likely at least close to a league average of .255. From a solid base, he did indeed progress to 40 homers the next year with 33% more at bats, followed by a run of years in which he was obviously not entirely healthy and played less than full time, playing in only 143, 134, 110, 132, 111, 99 and 109 games, yet posting respectable homerun totals of 36, 20, 12, 22, 19, 20, and 17 (in only 285 at bats in 1962). Sorry, no Jose Bautista there, either considering the factor of six entirely marginal major league performance years, or ANY PERIOD WHATSOEVER WHERE HE WAS EVEN ARGUABLY THE BEST IN THE GAME. Not only no cigar there, but not even any lolipop!

Rico Petrocelli does indeed bear a superficial resemblance, but his years preceding his big 40 homerun year included years of 13 (in less than two-thirds of a season), 18, 17, and 12 (in only 406 at bats), with batting averages which superficially may SEEM to resemble Bautista's, but were actually cose to the league averages in the heart of the pitcher's era, with a much larger strike zone and five inch higher mound. Plus, a shortstop good for 15-20 homers, fields well (Petrocelli did), and hits for the league average would not be considered a mediocre player. Petrocelli's big year came in 1969, when they shrunk the strike zone and lowered the mound, a time when a lot of other hitters achieved their career best years, including the aforementioned Frank Howard, Willie McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, arguably Reggie Jackson, etc. And I don't think anyone would have seriously nominated him as being in the running even then for the title of best hitter in the game. We're also not talking a 70-homerun pace here, as Bautista has been on since last May. Maybe a lolipop here for Rico, but certainly no cigar!
More tonight, when I have more time.

Nice lively discussion. Hope you don't take it personally

Larry

Last edited by ls7plus; 05-19-2011 at 11:26 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-19-2011, 11:38 AM
Robextend's Avatar
Robextend Robextend is offline
Rob Miller
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Middlesex, NJ
Posts: 2,928
Default

I would hope no one would take baseball talk personally.

But let's break it down:

2004 Only 88 ABs
2005 Only 28 ABs

How should both of those seasons even count for anything? So instead of the 6 years, it is really 4. There has been talk ad nauseam about how his swing had been dramatically changed. How about the fact he tore up the league the last month of 2009?

But also, how don't any of those examples mentioned above prove that these occurrences do happen?

Last edited by Robextend; 05-19-2011 at 11:42 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05-19-2011, 12:13 PM
D. Bergin's Avatar
D. Bergin D. Bergin is offline
Dave
Member
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: CT
Posts: 3,384
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus View Post

And no, D. Bergin, you most certainly did not name such a guy--see the second post above. Foster was anything but medicocre before his 50-homer season.
I pretty clearly stated the years Foster broke out. What about the 6 years in baseball prior to that?

He had 1 halfway decent season from 69' to 75' prior to his breakout year in '76.

Maybe Bautista is guilty, I don't know, but I'm not going to throw a guy under the bus without any evidence other then "he's doing really well right now".

Ben Oglivie is another guy who didn't develop a power swing until he was around 30 or so.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 05-19-2011, 12:16 PM
novakjr novakjr is offline
David Nova.kovich Jr.
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: 20 miles east of the Mistake
Posts: 2,269
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ls7plus View Post
I think virtually all of you have missed the point. We're talking about a player whose performance for SIX YEARS was barely good enough to stay in the major leagues, who then catapulted out of nowhere into THE 99th PERCENTILE of current hitters, and should his production continue at current levels, certainly above the 95th percentile of all time, at age 29! I repeat once more for clarity: IT DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY IN NATURE--IT NEVER HAS, AND IT NEVER WILL! None of your examples fit that mold at all. More tonight, when I have more time, but let me end with this for now: the homers hit by Bonds and McGwire are certainly entitled to just as much respect as those by Bautista, and everybody knows what they did not for, but to, the game.

Nice lively discussion. Hope you don't take it personally

Larry
Simple, he shouldn't have been in the majors for most of those years. Dude simply wasn't ready yet. The only reason he was up in the bigs is because the Pirates for the last 15-20 years or so have been fielding a minor league team.. I'm not trying to put down the Pirates or the city of Pittsburgh, but the facts are the facts. Even as an Clevelander, I've always liked the Pirates(not as much as the Indians though), and my father would take the family on a trip to Pittsburgh once a year when I was a kid to catch a Pirates game. Obviously I hate the Steelers. I do respect the hell out of them though...The Pirates, not so much, but I've always wanted to see them be a better team than they have been.

Jeromy Burnitz for on comes to mind as a late bloomer. He really didn't get much of a chance in the majors until he was 28 and showed some pretty good power once he was ready to be an everyday player.

Henry Rodriguez was another late bloomer. Didn't get much of a break into the majors until he was 28. Another solid power hitter in his prime.

Anyways, after looking around at a few other players. The closest I would compare Bautista up to this point in his career would probably be Kevin Mitchell. Mitchell put up some inconsistent averages and showed minimal to average power until he was 27 and then hit 47 home runs. Followed by 35, 27,9,19,30 and then pretty much fell completely off the map.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 05-19-2011, 12:36 PM
novakjr novakjr is offline
David Nova.kovich Jr.
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: 20 miles east of the Mistake
Posts: 2,269
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Bergin View Post
I pretty clearly stated the years Foster broke out. What about the 6 years in baseball prior to that?

He had 1 halfway decent season from 69' to 75' prior to his breakout year in '76.

Maybe Bautista is guilty, I don't know, but I'm not going to throw a guy under the bus without any evidence other then "he's doing really well right now".

Ben Oglivie is another guy who didn't develop a power swing until he was around 30 or so.
Sometimes you see a guy in the majors that is putting up average numbers and think that he's ready, but if you watch him closely, you just know he's not ready, he's not comfortable, he's not confident. Not to use for comparison to Bautista, but as an example of mindset. Michael Brantley(I know he didn't play much) from the Indians, prior to this year, he'd show some flashes of being good, but didn't look comfortable at the plate at all. He looked scared, in over his head, even more than was reflected in his stats. He looked that bad to me. Now, watching the Indians this year, he looks very confident, very disciplined, he appears to feel as though he belongs, he's ready. And it's showing in his stats...

You can tell when a player is at the plate and he's thinking "please don't strike out, or hit into a double play. If I f*** this up they're gonna send me down", and you can tell when a player is thinking "I'm getting on base, and I don't care how, but I'm doing it".. Right now Bautista is thinking "Go ahead and pitch around me, but if you F*** up, I'm gonna hit the snot out of it."
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 05-19-2011, 12:50 PM
Robextend's Avatar
Robextend Robextend is offline
Rob Miller
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Middlesex, NJ
Posts: 2,928
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by D. Bergin View Post
Maybe Bautista is guilty, I don't know, but I'm not going to throw a guy under the bus without any evidence other then "he's doing really well right now".
Agreed. It is certainly reasonable to have some skepticism for his accomplishments, but it is not reasonable to accuse without a sniff of evidence. The OP seemed to imply an accusation over skepticism.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Thoughts on Bautista - 50hr... jboosted92 Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 36 09-28-2010 06:06 PM
Jose Valdivielso Private Signing Dec 29, 2009 metrotheme Net54baseball Sports (Primarily) Vintage Memorabilia Forum incl. Game Used 4 12-21-2009 05:11 AM
Warning | Scam Artist Jose Hernandez is back Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 9 12-13-2008 04:12 PM
JOSE IS BACK | Now trying to sell me a T206 Ty Cobb Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 3 04-28-2008 09:31 PM
Naxcom show in San Jose, CA Archive Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions 7 08-13-2005 07:06 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:03 AM.


ebay GSB