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  #1  
Old 07-20-2017, 08:41 AM
Marchillo Marchillo is offline
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Default Aaron Judge the new Mickey Mantle?

Sorry if this has been posted already


Article from Forbes on a card listed at $175K on the bay


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidse.../#39275c132533

Last edited by Marchillo; 07-20-2017 at 08:42 AM.
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  #2  
Old 07-20-2017, 08:49 AM
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If it's play money, then sure it's fun. If it's an investment, it's stupid as hell, for one thing he's 25 and his minor league history is not that impressive, for another thing he has been great only a few months and that doesn't necessarily predict anything in baseball.
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Old 07-20-2017, 08:58 AM
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I thought Trout was the new Mantle. Or is it Harper or...
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Old 07-20-2017, 09:03 AM
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.420 BABIP, let's take a breath folks.
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  #5  
Old 07-20-2017, 09:19 AM
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Trout's better than Mantle. Harper isn't as good as Mantle, nor will Judge be.
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Old 07-20-2017, 09:22 AM
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Originally Posted by darwinbulldog View Post
Trout's better than Mantle. Harper isn't as good as Mantle, nor will Judge be.
Trout has been sensational his first few years. Harper has been inconsistent, but if (big if) he can stay healthy and tame his tendency to get impatient (which emerged again last year), I think long term he could be the equal of Trout. Judge, I remain skeptical.

Keep in mind Harper is only 24 and already has close to 150 HR.
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Old 07-20-2017, 09:37 AM
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Trout has been sensational his first few years. Harper has been inconsistent, but if (big if) he can stay healthy and tame his tendency to get impatient (which emerged again last year), I think long term he could be the equal of Trout. Judge, I remain skeptical.

Keep in mind Harper is only 24 and already has close to 150 HR.
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Old 07-20-2017, 10:03 AM
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For whatever reason Aaron Judge shows a road/home split that typically is only seen in Colorado players. He hits long home runs so it shouldn't be due to fence length. It appears he gets a charge from the home crowd.

2017 stats
Home:42 games: 151ab / 21hr / .377ba/ .489obp/ .834slg
Away:49 games: 176ab /9hr/ .256ba/.385obp/.483slg

This is worrisome enough that I wouldn't compare him to any greats. His home stats are crazy impressive, but those road stats show that he has some issues even if it is just his mental game.

Edit to add:
This trend also showed up in his limited 2016 run:
2016
Home: 16 games / 47ab / 3 hr/ .255ba/.340obp/.489slg
Away:11 games / 37ab/ 1 hr/ .081ba/.167obp/.162slg
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Old 07-20-2017, 10:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Trout has been sensational his first few years. Harper has been inconsistent, but if (big if) he can stay healthy and tame his tendency to get impatient (which emerged again last year), I think long term he could be the equal of Trout. Judge, I remain skeptical.

Keep in mind Harper is only 24 and already has close to 150 HR.
i once believe this, but i don't think this is the case going forward. trout's all-around game is better, and i thought harper was the more offensively gifted player but trout makes crazy adjustments every year so i don't even think that's the case anymore.

i'm not going to comment on judge, let's see him finish one mlb season first and how he adjusts next year. trout is like lebron at this point, people keep trying to elevate players over him and the new flavor of the month (cabrera, harper, bryant, judge etc) but the king stays the king.
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  #10  
Old 07-20-2017, 12:29 PM
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Aaron Judge has had an outstanding first HALF of ONE season...nothing more.

All this has been seen before...many times to varying degrees.

MLB stardom is not achieved without a lot of adjustments by both hitter and the pitchers he faces.

As of this date, the pitchers have the edge since the All-Star break. The ball is now in Judge's court...no pun intended.

Maybe Clint Frazier will wind up being even better than Judge...only time will tell.

Neither have reached the Bryce Harper level much less the Mike Trout level.

Time will tell.


But, NOBODY will have the impact on the hobby that Mantle did and still has.


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  #11  
Old 07-20-2017, 12:44 PM
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I remember people saying Strasburg was a bust because he's not Sandy Koufax. Strasburg is a 3 time all star, silver slugger winner, and has a career K rate over 10 per 9 innings. I'd say that's pretty good but other people might say it's not good enough.

Judge will certainly win the ROY award this year and he's a starting all star. That's pretty good. Maybe he won't be a HOFer, but if he hits 30 homers a year for the next 4 or 5 seasons I'll be thrilled.

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  #12  
Old 07-20-2017, 04:53 PM
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I certainly don't think Judge is the next Mantle. This post was to simply point out the ridiculous $175k asking price for his baseball card.
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  #13  
Old 07-20-2017, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
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I remember people saying Strasburg was a bust because he's not Sandy Koufax. Strasburg is a 3 time all star, silver slugger winner, and has a career K rate over 10 per 9 innings. I'd say that's pretty good but other people might say it's not good enough.

Judge will certainly win the ROY award this year and he's a starting all star. That's pretty good. Maybe he won't be a HOFer, but if he hits 30 homers a year for the next 4 or 5 seasons I'll be thrilled.
Strasburg had unlimited potential when he came up -- a 100 MPH fastball that moved and that he could spot, and a wicked breaking ball. Plus the maturity of a 30 year old on the mound. He was that once or twice in a generation pitcher and then some. Yes, he is still good, but he is a ghost of who he could have been had he not blown his elbow out IMO.
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  #14  
Old 07-23-2017, 10:48 PM
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It may be too early to call him the next Mantle, but the way the ball flies off his bat is amazing. I have spent more time watching Yankees games in the last couple of weeks than I've watched baseball in the last few years. It's been fun getting into the modern game again.

Check out this article. The Marlins consulted NASA engineers to build a roof that could not be hit. He hit it twice.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/07/...asa-equations/
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Old 07-24-2017, 09:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darwinbulldog View Post
Trout's better than Mantle. Harper isn't as good as Mantle, nor will Judge be.
Trout is better than Mantle?? Glenn, are you serious or just messing with us?
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  #16  
Old 07-24-2017, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by pokerplyr80 View Post
It may be too early to call him the next Mantle, but the way the ball flies off his bat is amazing. I have spent more time watching Yankees games in the last couple of weeks than I've watched baseball in the last few years. It's been fun getting into the modern game again.

Check out this article. The Marlins consulted NASA engineers to build a roof that could not be hit. He hit it twice.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/07/...asa-equations/
It makes you wonder if Mantle had been 6"8" and 285 lbs what he might could have done hitting a baseball... Let's pump the brakes a bit on Judge, way to early. As it was, Mantle was 5'11" 180 lbs and was the fastest runner in baseball before he blew out his knee, and could hit a baseball 500 feet....

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Old 07-24-2017, 09:29 PM
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I'm a lifelong Yankees fan and while I usually follow the yankees I've been watching and listening to most games when I can...thank you MLB.com. Mainly because the yanks have an exciting young team...and obviously judge is a big factor.

He's jeter on steroids. If he can stack together a nice career without any huge injuries...he will amass impressive #'s. I could see 40 hr 100 rbi being .300 ba being the norm for Aaron for a good long time!!

And I'm guessing when he signs his next big contract with the yankees he will be the next Captain!

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Old 07-24-2017, 09:34 PM
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I'm a lifelong Yankees fan and while I usually follow the yankees I've been watching and listening to most games when I can...thank you MLB.com. Mainly because the yanks have an exciting young team...and obviously judge is a big factor.

He's jeter on steroids. If he can stack together a nice career without any huge injuries...he will amass impressive #'s. I could see 40 hr 100 rbi being .300 ba being the norm for Aaron for a good long time!!

And I'm guessing when he signs his next big contract with the yankees he will be the next Captain!
Thanks Pete, would you dare compare him to Mantle?
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Old 07-24-2017, 09:42 PM
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It makes you wonder if Mantle had been 6"8" and 285 lbs what he might could have done hitting a baseball... Let's pump the brakes a bit on Judge, way to early. As it was, Mantle was 5'11" 180 lbs and was the fastest runner in baseball before he blew out his knee, and could hit a baseball 500 feet....
I would like to understand what the story was on Judge when he was 20-24, from what I see his numbers were pretty mediocre, how do you go from being an at best above average minor leaguer to a superstar as a rookie at 25? That is a WTF for me to this point, but perhaps people have good explanations. It seems rather unprecedented but again perhaps not. Anyhow I agree with Kevin it's way too early to anoint him anything.
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:02 PM
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I would like to understand what the story was on Judge when he was 20-24, from what I see his numbers were pretty mediocre, how do you go from being an at best above average minor leaguer to a superstar as a rookie at 25? That is a WTF for me to this point, but perhaps people have good explanations. It seems rather unprecedented but again perhaps not. Anyhow I agree with Kevin it's way too early to anoint him anything.
I agree...Where is this all coming from all of a sudden on his stats? Things that make you go hmmmm.
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:17 PM
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aaron judge isn't a switch hitter so how could he be compared to mantle?
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:19 PM
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I agree...Where is this all coming from all of a sudden on his stats? Things that make you go hmmmm.
I just don't know. Maybe he somehow closed up a hole in his swing, or finally learned to keep his hands back? Maybe it was one of those situations where he was just a subtle adjustment away and someone finally worked on it with him? It is odd. Anyhow, especially given that he had a number of not so productive years, we just need to wait and see.
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:21 PM
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How many "next Mickey Mantles" have their been in the last 25-30 years? I first remember hearing that with Greg Jefferies. I'm sure there were other players before Jefferies. I don't know how many there have been since Jefferies but it seems like every few years a player comes along that is the "next Mantle".

James
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Old 07-24-2017, 10:23 PM
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How many "next Mickey Mantles" have their been in the last 25-30 years? I first remember hearing that with Greg Jefferies. I'm sure there were other players before Jefferies. I don't know how many there have been since Jefferies but it seems like every few years a player comes along that is the "next Mantle".

James
Bobby Murcer certainly. I think Kirk Gibson was spoken of in those terms. Kevin Maas maybe.
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Old 07-25-2017, 08:09 AM
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I don't think the comparison to Greg Jefferies or Kevin Maas is apt but I wouldn't mind being compared to Bobby Murcer. At age 25 he had his best season too.

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Old 07-25-2017, 10:03 AM
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Gentlemen, the OP was only comparing their cards. He was not comparing them as players.

Comparing Judge to Mantle wouldn't make any sense. Judge is bigger than LeBron James and Mantle wasn't even 6 feet tall!
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Old 07-25-2017, 10:26 AM
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Gentlemen, the OP was only comparing their cards. He was not comparing them as players.

Comparing Judge to Mantle wouldn't make any sense. Judge is bigger than LeBron James and Mantle wasn't even 6 feet tall!
Judge may be taller, but Mantle's Topps cards (<1957) were longer than Judge's.

Case closed.
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Old 07-25-2017, 10:34 AM
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Fun fact: through his age 25 season Mantle had 52.2 WAR (B-R version). Currently, Trout has... wait for it... 52.2 WAR.

Too early to tell if he'll end up with Mantle's career, but so far I think it's fair to call Trout the next Mantle.
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Old 07-25-2017, 10:36 AM
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Trout has 2 MVPs and 3 seconds I think -- and at least one of those he should have been first.
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Old 07-25-2017, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CMIZ5290 View Post
It makes you wonder if Mantle had been 6"8" and 285 lbs what he might could have done hitting a baseball... Let's pump the brakes a bit on Judge, way to early. As it was, Mantle was 5'11" 180 lbs and was the fastest runner in baseball before he blew out his knee, and could hit a baseball 500 feet....
No argument here. Were it not for injuries I think Mantle and Griffey would have been in the discussion with Ruth for greatest of all time. Although for anyone to top the babe he'd have to be able to pitch too.

Half a season has never got anyone into the HOF. But from what I've seen so far of Judge I think he will have a great career and could end up being the face of baseball for the next 10 years. Time will tell. For now I'm just enjoying the show.
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Old 07-27-2017, 05:54 PM
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Just noticed Judge only has 13 2b so far. That seems really low for a power hitter, what's up with that?
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:43 PM
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Just noticed Judge only has 13 2b so far. That seems really low for a power hitter, what's up with that?
They haven't moved the fences back yet.
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Old 07-28-2017, 04:47 PM
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I doubt Judge is the new Mantle. He does appear to be a version of Chili Davis in 1991, great first half and couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat the second half.
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  #34  
Old 07-30-2017, 09:10 AM
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Judge is the new Adam Dunn
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  #35  
Old 07-30-2017, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth View Post
Just noticed Judge only has 13 2b so far. That seems really low for a power hitter, what's up with that?


FYI:

Though different eras, Mickey didn't have a lot of doubles during his career.




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Old 07-30-2017, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
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FYI:

Though different eras, Mickey didn't have a lot of doubles during his career.




.
Interesting. You would think with his power Mantle would have driven a ton of balls up the gaps. I would love to hear a theory. Injuries maybe, he was just afraid to leg out hits?
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