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  #1  
Old 08-11-2012, 09:34 AM
ruth-gehrig ruth-gehrig is offline
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Default Unaccounted for Attic Finds, Garage Finds, Thrift Store Finds

With the recent find of mint E98s in an attic along with smaller finds you periodically hear about(for example this one on ebay of 2 St. Louis Demmitts glued to a toolbox lid)http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...vip=true&rt=nc , what percentage of old cards/collectibles are still undiscovered? Do you think 99% of items have already been discovered and are in collections or are you on the other end and believe only 50% of items are accounted for? I know it's pure speculation but I thought would be interesting to hear the boards thoughts on this.

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Old 08-11-2012, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ruth-gehrig View Post
With the recent find of mint E98s in an attic along with smaller finds you periodically hear about(for example this one on ebay of 2 St. Louis Demmitts glued to a toolbox lid)http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...vip=true&rt=nc , what percentage of old cards/collectibles are still undiscovered? Do you think 99% of items have already been discovered and are in collections or are you on the other end and believe only 50% of items are accounted for? I know it's pure speculation but I thought would be interesting to hear the boards thoughts on this.

Regards,
Michael
There is a lot in the hobby already but I still think a decent little percentage is left to be found. I would just guess about 10% or so....which is quite a large number imo.....
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Old 08-11-2012, 10:36 AM
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I agree with Leon on this.

Two weeks before the National I made a call to a young man who found a box of vintage baseball cards in a house he bought here in my hometown.

He told me during the conversation that there are 4 Satchel Paige cards & 21 DanDee cards to include Mantle.

After I explained my situation with the National being so near, we agreed to wait til after the National and possibly talk about me purchasing all of the cards.

I'm sure there is still some cards out there to be found. Just rewind back the last five years & look at what has been discovered.

Good thread!

Jantz
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Old 08-11-2012, 10:55 AM
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While a specific number or percentage is impossible to determine, there are other factors which can bring fresh material to the market. This includes families of deceased collectors who just want the stuff out of the house, collectors who die without a will or close family, divorce or separation (irate ex-spouses sometimes set spitefully low prices), change of interest, moving / downsizing sales, loss or decrease of employment, etc. Fresh material enters the sports hobby daily, although finds such as the E-98 find are rarer than honest politicians....
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Old 08-11-2012, 10:58 AM
JasonD08 JasonD08 is offline
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A large (80%) or so of high grade pre war is out there still waiting to be discovered. I think most of the lower grade (LOVED CARDS) have been discovered.
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:14 AM
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Jantz. Keep us posted on this find and let us know if it's any good. I love hearing about these things.

I also agree with the idea that there is still plenty of "finds" out there. Not a lot of them in the same ballpark as the black swamp find, but still a lot of new cards for the hobby. I think there are a lot of uncataloged and unconfirmed cards out there too. When the Just So Ewing was discovered I was very excited. I think there are plenty of these such cards out there to be found.

Best,

AndyH
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:26 AM
barrysloate barrysloate is offline
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Of course it's impossible to guess what is unknown, but 2012 has been a banner year for finds so I have to think there is more stuff out there. The publicity of our hobby over the past twenty years certainly has brought most of them out, but there are still many old houses that may have a cache in the attic or basement and the owners are not even aware of it. So I'm sure we'll see more interesting finds down the road, although it would be hard to imagine any bigger than the Black Swamp cards.
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:31 AM
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I guy I worked who a few years ago moved to MI, bought a house and when he went to tear out a wall to remodel, he found the wall stuffed with 1968 Topps Game cards, hundreds of them along with newspaper almost like they were using them for insulation.
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Old 08-12-2012, 09:45 AM
ruth-gehrig ruth-gehrig is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonD08 View Post
A large (80%) or so of high grade pre war is out there still waiting to be discovered. I think most of the lower grade (LOVED CARDS) have been discovered.
Why do you believe 80% of high grade pre war hasn't been discovered yet? That seems like alot to me.

Last edited by ruth-gehrig; 08-12-2012 at 09:46 AM.
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  #10  
Old 08-12-2012, 12:44 PM
dherm360 dherm360 is offline
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here is a another question, do you think there are more undiscovered cards found each year or do we lose even more cards each year(floods, fire, natural disasters and so on)
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Old 08-12-2012, 01:38 PM
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here is a another question, do you think there are more undiscovered cards found each year or do we lose even more cards each year(floods, fire, natural disasters and so on)
I was thinking the exact same thing. I grew up in a neighborhood of houses that were all built around 1890-1920, and in the early 2000's so many of them were gutted and turned into multiple condo units. You wonder what might have been tossed or destroyed during the re-construction. I can just picture the original workers smoking Piedmonts or Sweet Caporals while they were putting up walls and tossing the empty packages into the wall spaces or sub-flooring.
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Old 08-12-2012, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by JasonD08 View Post
A large (80%) or so of high grade pre war is out there still waiting to be discovered. I think most of the lower grade (LOVED CARDS) have been discovered.

Have to disagree on this one. The Swamp Find was an aberration, any cards out there which have not been discovered are likely in lower grade. While I think there may be some collectors who are nearing the end of the line and who never had any of their cards graded, it's hard to believe that any unknown, undiscovered pre-war cards in high grade, tobacco or caramel, are likely to surface. Combine the fact that everyone knows old baseball cards can be very valuable with the fact that there were lots of paper drives during World War One and World War Two, and well-meaning mothers who tossed cards away and I've got to disagree with your statement....
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  #13  
Old 08-12-2012, 05:11 PM
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There is exactly 9.218% total cards undisovered.

I hope this helps and settles the "guess work" !

DinoPro
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  #14  
Old 08-12-2012, 06:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dinopro View Post
there is exactly 9.218% total cards undisovered.

I hope this helps and settles the "guess work" !

Dinopro
9.21816%...LOL.....my smilies are not working for some reason

Last edited by Bocabirdman; 08-12-2012 at 06:40 PM.
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  #15  
Old 08-12-2012, 07:15 PM
Orioles1954 Orioles1954 is offline
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In April we had a consignor from Virginia who found a group of nearly 300 T206 cards in an old toy box. That group yielded several SGC 88 and SGC 84 singles. Considering tens of millions of these cards were produced....there is more than likely many more of these finds to be had.
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  #16  
Old 08-12-2012, 07:53 PM
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Two years ago I went back to Massachusetts to deal with the selling of my wife's inherited family home. I lived up there from 1969 to 1985. I was in and out of dozens of towns that consisted of at least 50% of homes built during or before the T206 years. Two years ago, I noticed that number was cut drastically. maybe down to 10%. Alot of those had undergone major facelifts. I realize that the home does not HAVE to be that old to have a hidden stash of cards but it seems to me that the number of hiding places are steadily shrinking.
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  #17  
Old 08-12-2012, 09:26 PM
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Default It depends on what you mean by "found"

If you mean graded more than 50% unfound on most cards. If you mean in known collections in hobby circles probably 50-65% are known. If you count collections and family heirlooms that people know they have but the general collecting world is unaware of the number is probably at 75-85%. If you just mean buried in Grandma-GrandPa's attic, barn, etc, I agree with Leon's 10-15% number obviously more on some issues and less on others. That doesn't mean there won't be another high grade find ever. there will be its just what set and how many.
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  #18  
Old 08-12-2012, 09:33 PM
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I really feel that although there will be more "finds," I don't think they would be in the magnitude of the Ohio find. ( or even close for that matter ) Back in the day ( late 80's & 90's ) things would be unearthed and brought to shows, sold at yard sales, etc... Now I think when people find that box of 700-1000 cards from the 50's and 60's, they tend to think they've found their retirement, but really they just have maybe a couple thousand dollars worth of stuff. I had an interesting talk with a dealer at a local show about a month ago who used to own a shop. He said that in the 80's and even into the mid nineties, he would see some great collections come in. He said that he basically kept the store open for a few years after he should have closed, just hoping for that next collection to come. He said that the last few years of the store it became the exact opposite of what it once was. I guy might have about 300 cards from the late 60's and they'd want thousands.
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  #19  
Old 08-12-2012, 11:46 PM
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I'm in the antiques and vintage business (Once Possessed in Snellville, Ga if you're ever in the area) and go on a lot of house calls. While not neccessarily card related, people are often surprised when I tell them about the collectability and potential value of the thing they own. Mainstream things, not esoteric items. Old comics, guns, sports stuff, coins, toys, etc.

Who knows what the percentage is, but I'd say there's many a grouping of cards still out there.
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  #20  
Old 08-13-2012, 12:51 AM
WVSPORTKINGS WVSPORTKINGS is offline
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I believe there will be some more finds in the future, maybe nothing like the Black Swamp Find. I'm confident more cards from private collections will be sent in for grading. I believe I read on PSA website that they took in 22000 items at the National for grading. However one of the most disturbing pictures I saw in one of the free magazines I picked up at the national was two cards that had just been grade by SGC, laying on top of a pile of PSA flips that had been pulled from cards broken out of their PSA holders for regrading. So much for Pop Reports being acturate.
Wouldn't it be great if the grading companies would return the flips to the original grading company when this happens. Just wishful thinking!

Mark WVSportkings
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  #21  
Old 08-13-2012, 09:10 AM
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As far as cards or other collectibles found within walls of old homes, or in attics or basements, I would think that those that are doing the remodeling or the buyers of an older home would definatly take a lot of consideration if they found old Baseball cards in the wall or basement or attic. It is now common knowledge to most people that Baseball cards can be valuable. I just do not see these remodeled homes havings tons of old cards that were thrown away by present day construction workers or home owners finding them in the basement or attic. I would think most of them would want to attempt to cash in on the cards. Even if they did not know they found cards, they can at least see that these are very old antique items and try to get them appraised. I am sure there are cases of cards getting thrown out in newly purchases or remodeled older homes, but I do not think it is widespread.
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  #22  
Old 08-13-2012, 10:49 AM
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I don't know, there are some dumb/ignorant people out there.

For example, about six years ago, my (now ex) Brother-in-Law called me and asked if I could look at some old coins and currency. He said a guy in his old neighborhood had inherited them and was using them to buy soft drinks and cigarettes with. I agreed to look at them and he came over to the house.

The collection included some pennies and nickels but for the most part, it was silver dimes and quarters with a few half dollars, dollars and two gold pieces.

All told, there was a little over $300 dollars in face value. My ex-BIL paid something like $450 for everything. I told him to hang onto some of the stuff but he wanted to cash out. So, he took the collection to a coin dealer and was paid a little over $3,000 for everything.

Silver was about $9 dollars an ounce back then so if he had held on then that $3,000 would be more like $12,000 today.

My point is, people "should" know that things are valuable but often times they don't. Considering more people collect coins than cards and there is more info out there about old coins, my ex-BIL never should have been able to buy that collection so cheaply. But, he did.

So, I can imagine an older person (or their descendants) finding a stash of small baseball cards and not thinking much about them because they are not as big as baseball cards today. Even more likely, I can see them finding old, empty wrappers or boxes and throwing them away as trash.

I imagine non-sports cards are thrown away at an even larger rate.

David
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  #23  
Old 08-13-2012, 10:49 PM
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Default My only find

In 6th grade, a new kid showed up and overheard some of us talking baseball He said his family just moved to a house and found a small box of cards in the attic. I was collecting the current 85 topps and donruss, with a few very old and treasured 78, 79 topps. I told him 10.00 for the box, unseen, and he agreed. Brought it the next day, approx 50 cards, all junk commons, very old for me though, except for the last card: 63 Rose rookie in fr-gd (ex-mt to me back then). I told him about the card and was glad he said deal is a deal. Couldn't wait to get home to tell my dad...Later used the cash from selling that to buy a Ruth w515 from teletrade, which was a dream card considering I always wondered aloud to friends if there was any such thing as a real ruth card from his playing days...wish i still had the rose, but i do have my 82 fleer Hrabosky error card.

Think landfills contain more than will actually be found?

Last edited by Clutch-Hitter; 08-13-2012 at 10:49 PM.
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Old 08-14-2012, 01:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oaks1912 View Post
While a specific number or percentage is impossible to determine, there are other factors which can bring fresh material to the market. This includes families of deceased collectors who just want the stuff out of the house, collectors who die without a will or close family, divorce or separation (irate ex-spouses sometimes set spitefully low prices), change of interest, moving / downsizing sales, loss or decrease of employment, etc. Fresh material enters the sports hobby daily, although finds such as the E-98 find are rarer than honest politicians....
Go and find me 600+ honest politicans!!!
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  #25  
Old 08-15-2012, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dinopro View Post
there is exactly 9.218% total cards undisovered.

I hope this helps and settles the "guess work" !

Dinopro

+1

:d
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  #26  
Old 08-15-2012, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by zljones View Post
As far as cards or other collectibles found within walls of old homes, or in attics or basements, I would think that those that are doing the remodeling or the buyers of an older home would definatly take a lot of consideration if they found old Baseball cards in the wall or basement or attic. It is now common knowledge to most people that Baseball cards can be valuable. I just do not see these remodeled homes havings tons of old cards that were thrown away by present day construction workers or home owners finding them in the basement or attic. I would think most of them would want to attempt to cash in on the cards. Even if they did not know they found cards, they can at least see that these are very old antique items and try to get them appraised. I am sure there are cases of cards getting thrown out in newly purchases or remodeled older homes, but I do not think it is widespread.
I agree that if the remodelers actually found the cards, they would definitely try to cash in. My point is that for the most part, wall spaces and floor boards do not contain trash/treasures, so unless the cards were noticed among the wood, plaster, etc during the demo, there is a good chance that some old trashed cigarette packs with cards included could get tossed in the dumpster with the rest of the debris. I'm always rooting for new finds, I just think that there are cases where possible finds are getting missed and destroyed.
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Old 08-15-2012, 04:45 PM
judsonhamlin judsonhamlin is online now
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This gives me an idea - dump a bunch of my 1987 Topps cards behind some wall from our attic and 40 years from now someone remodeling our house can find them. Won't be worth anything even then, but they'll think it's cool
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Old 08-15-2012, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolf441 View Post
I agree that if the remodelers actually found the cards, they would definitely try to cash in. My point is that for the most part, wall spaces and floor boards do not contain trash/treasures, so unless the cards were noticed among the wood, plaster, etc during the demo, there is a good chance that some old trashed cigarette packs with cards included could get tossed in the dumpster with the rest of the debris. I'm always rooting for new finds, I just think that there are cases where possible finds are getting missed and destroyed.
Yes indeed I can see that happening
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Old 08-15-2012, 05:56 PM
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So what are some of the other recent finds? I know about the Black Swamp find but what about other ones? Details on the cards in them would be great, if possible.

Tabe
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Old 08-16-2012, 12:24 PM
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Default I'm not so sure...

I'm sure...that #1 all of these population reports are all boogered up (or in the very near future will be) by all of the cracking and regrading, which could lead to population manipulation and eventual market manipulation, and #2 that up to 80% of all collectors have non-graded or not previously publicly seen cards.

I live in a relatively rural area and I know of several major collectors from the 80's who have plenty of vintage that they are just sitting on, and yes, those collection include high grade non-graded material. I know of more than one former major dealer who were out before grading got popular with safe deposit boxes full of high grade vintage.

Trust me...there is a lot out there that has not been publicly seen. A lot. These population reports aren't the end all beat all, ya know. Take them with a grain of salt.

Last edited by biggsdaddycool; 08-17-2012 at 09:39 AM.
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