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  #11  
Old 07-12-2018, 12:24 PM
AGuinness AGuinness is offline
Garth Guibord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David W View Post
With the stock market returning almost 20% last year why would you invest in cards?
Playing a bit of Devil's Advocate here, but one can't invest in last year's stock market today, right? So if somebody with an educated opinion prefers investing in cards over the market today, it's certainly possible that it's the better choice.
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  #12  
Old 07-12-2018, 03:29 PM
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Exhibitman Exhibitman is offline
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Everyone's assessment of how the card market is doing depends on your measuring points and your measurement choices.

On the one hand, I am picking up really nice raw 1960s-1970s and I am replacing my PSA 8-9 cards as quickly as I can with those raw picks because there is a ton of inventory. 4SC has opened a ton of raw stuff and has simultaneously bloated the market for raw (via its liquidator NESC) and collapsed the market for PSA cards in the 6-8 range from that era. I've all but stopped my PSA submissions because I literally lose money whenever I send in a card from that era unless it scores a 9 or 10, or is one of a handful of select rookies: 4SC offers them up slabbed at less than my peon-level grading cost. It is akin to a Wal-Mart opening in a small town and destroying the mom and pop stores. I'm dumping my PSA graded cards on eBay because I can replace them with raw cards in just as nice shape for a fraction of the price. I can see where the market would look really, really bad if your inventory was postwar mainstream 6-8 PSA cards, especially if you self-submitted. The sunk costs of slabbing alone would kill you.

On the other hand (my father once said he'd love to see a one-handed lawyer), I see a great opportunity for collectors who want to move into areas where there is a glut/depressed market. I've got a giant want list for the National but it is almost all cards that I expect to shop for and find very cheaply. I plan to shlep* home a big box of additions to my PC, more cards than ever before, with no plastic cases in sight.

*For the Yiddish-challenged, "to carry a burden"
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Last edited by Exhibitman; 07-12-2018 at 03:30 PM.
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  #13  
Old 07-13-2018, 03:42 PM
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I have the theoretical knowledge to make decisions on cards as "an investment", but not the discipline. Sometimes I know which cards I shouldn't buy, but I want them now, dammit. Just as "buy low, sell high" is also a smart approach with cards, I seemingly don't have the patience for that either. Whenever I even need to move cards just to pay for something new I just couldn't resist, I seem to have a lousy track record at selling at the high end of the market.

I have 2 daughters, one who is into baseball right now and the other not so much. My cards (whatever is left, anyway) will go to them and they can treasure them as I would or dispose of them as they please as circumstances dictate...
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  #14  
Old 07-13-2018, 04:44 PM
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I just want to quickly jump in here and add my thoughts about looking at a specific situation from a pseudo-investment perspective.

Whenever the 15% off ebay coupons appear, it becomes a two-pronged approach for me. I want to purchase cards that I want/need/would love to have, but I also pay big-time attention to the resale value of said cards.

With that second point in mind, I start searching through pretty expensive graded cards (hopefully, if I can afford it, landing right at $666.67 in order to get the maximum $100 'discount'), and start narrowing it down from there. The reason I look at high priced cards (I know that term has a different meaning for everyone), is because you are much more likely to do well on your return on investment when the day comes for you to sell them. (Meaning, for the most part, people selling more expensive cards need to keep them within sight of what people expect to pay to stand any chance of selling them. Not so the case with lower valued cards.) For instance, say a card regularly/always sells for $500 and you are able through the discount to get one for $425. If you immediately turn around and let someone have it for the usual 5 bills, you've made a quick profit. But say you want to get some lower cost, high grade cards that are listed for more than they are 'worth' (read as what past sales have gone for) at $100 apiece. The 15% discount does nothing for you, because the cards are already overpriced by way more than 15%. You'll be starting out already in the hole.

(No investment strategies guides were harmed in creating this post.)
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  #15  
Old 07-14-2018, 06:12 PM
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When he was four years old, my son managed to defeat the lock on the cabinet that held my card collection. Fortunately, he was only able to fully "examine" a few dozen cards before the baby-sitter collared him. I've been thinking of including those cards in his inheritance, but not sure if he would appreciate the mordant humor, even though they could likely bring a few hundred bucks despite the creases and tears. I'm sure he'd prefer valuable stocks, if I had any to leave.
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  #16  
Old 07-14-2018, 06:29 PM
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glynparson glynparson is offline
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Default it was clearly being manipulated

It was obviously artificial i am still not sure why some refuse to admit that. It doesn't take a genius to figure it out. There were some deep pockets attempting some market manipulation. I think it did bump the market up though over where it was pre manipulation. not by a lot but definitely did create some interest. Key low pop high grade rookies are still very expensive not sure the true top tier have fallen much but the more available even in better grade stuff is clearly softer without the extra cash those buyers were pumping in to the market.
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  #17  
Old 07-14-2018, 06:43 PM
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If the market's so soft why does it feel like I can't buy anything unless I am willing to overpay?
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  #18  
Old 07-14-2018, 07:20 PM
Johnny630 Johnny630 is offline
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Peter,

I believe it’s because people either bought in 2016 or they don’t really want to sell the card. The economy is good. It’s also hard for some people to take a loss on a deal/card. Some people have it in their heads that whenever or whatever they buy should be worth more when they sell it. I have a bad feeling some sellers are going to have ridiculously high prices on their post war graded material. We shall see.

Last edited by Johnny630; 07-14-2018 at 07:22 PM.
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  #19  
Old 07-15-2018, 02:26 PM
LeftHandedDane LeftHandedDane is offline
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Card collecting is a hobby for me, too - not an investment. That said, I am careful when I buy - I have a goal to be able to at least recoup a large percentage of what I put into it when the day comes to liquidate. That makes it a more cost effective hobby than, say, golf or travel or attending sporting events. At least thats what I keep telling the missus!
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  #20  
Old 07-15-2018, 04:56 PM
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There was (and is; Probstein/PWCC) market manipulation on the high end, and it spilled across to some lower end cards that many of us rushed to buy. No one can seriously debate that. But that only accounts for a piece of the pie . The economy has been decent for several years and people are feeling comfortable enough to spend on cards. I've seen a definite upward trend on real rarities: the cards I tend to enjoy having. I am getting unsolicited offers to buy and they are strong. Postwar, except for the high value cards that were manipulated, is swamped with material right now.
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So... move out of your studio apartment! And try speaking to a real live woman, and GROW THE HELL UP! I mean, it's just baseball cards dammit, IT'S JUST BASEBALL CARDS!
10% off any BIN in my eBay store (user name: exhibitman) for N54 members buying direct from me through this site instead, just PM me.
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